Expected value is a term often used in poker circles. It is meant to refer to how profitable a given play will be over the long haul. It is generally calculated by determining the likelihood of each eventuality and determining how much money each of those eventualities will make or cost you, then adding it all up. If the number you reach is on the plus side, you have a positive expectation or positive EV play. If it is on the negative side, you have a negative expectation or negative EV play.

For example: Let's say that you are deciding whether or not to move all in in a certain situation. You have $500 left and there is $1000 in the pot. You feel that if you move in, there is a 20% chance your opponent will fold. If your opponent calls, you feel that you will hit a flush and win 20% of the time. Your expectation is as follows:

-- 20% of the time, your opponent will fold, and you'll have $1500 in front of you.

-- 16% of the time (80%)(20%), your opponent will call & you'll win, so you'll wind up with a total of $2000.

-- 64% of the time (80%)(80%), your opponent will call & you'll lose, so you'll end up with $0 left.

(Notice: these 3 probabilities add up to 100%.)

So your expected amount of money left is 20% x $1500 + 16% x $2000 + 64% x $0 = $300 + $320 + $0 = $620. Your expected amount of money if you don't move in is $500, so moving in is a +$120 value play. Clearly in a cash game, this means you would make this play, unless you came up with one with a higher expectation or you realize that your calculations are wrong somewhere.

In a tournament situation however, things are a little different. You don't have an infinite number of trials or even ten trials. If you are on the losing end of an all in proposition in a tournament, the game is over. Hence, the EV of the play is not the only factor. You will need to decide how much of a positive EV you will need to make the play. If you are a shorter stack or facing a very large field, you may decide that any positive EV is sufficient. If you have a healthy stack but are up against a bigger stack, or feel that you have a large skill advantage over your opponents, you will want to wait for situations where you have a very positive EV. Also, unless you are a math genius or happen to have the situation memorized, you will have to make these EV calculations in a very rough manner, but this is usually sufficient to make an informed tournament decision.

More articles and tips on everything from hand rankings to advanced Texas Holdem strategy can be found at Learn Texas Hold’em.

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